Iraq and Türkiye’s Opportunities in an Evolving Regional Equation
In recent years, the geopolitical transformation in the Middle East has been reshaping regional power balances, placing Iraq at the center of this evolving landscape. The gradual reduction of the United States’ military role in Iraq, shifts in Iran’s regional influence, the war between Iran, Israel, and the United States, and Baghdad’s regional economic integration initiatives have further elevated Iraq’s strategic importance.
Iraq’s post-2003 political system, constructed around ethnic and sectarian power-sharing arrangements, has already constrained the prospects for long-term national integration. While Shiite political blocs hold significant weight, rivalry among Kurdish groups, the fragmented nature of Sunni political movements, and chronic political and economic disputes between Baghdad and Erbil continue to deepen the country’s structural fragmentation.
The rivalry and conflicts between the United States and Iran have turned Iraq into a field of contestation both militarily and politically. This situation is closely linked not only to Iraq’s geopolitical position but also to the country’s militia networks, sectarian power-sharing structure, and weak state capacity. For many years, the U.S. presence on the ground served as a constraining factor in the operational space of these militia groups. However, the gradual reduction of Washington’s military role is increasingly exposing Iraq’s security balance to competition among local and regional actors. This development is widely seen as one that could particularly enhance the political and military influence of militia groups aligned with Iran.
The war that spread across the region with Israel and the U.S. attacking Iran on February 28, has also had reflections on Iraq. Following attacks on Iran, Iraqi militia groups backed by Tehran are organizing attacks on Iraq, the Kurdistan Regional Government (KRG) and Western targets while increasing their threats. Militia groups becoming part of the war, in addition to the country’s fragile structure, may drag Iraq once again into the center of a proxy war.
On the other hand, despite the risks facing Iraq, it appears that during the government of Prime Minister Mohammed Shia’ al-Sudani the country has begun to achieve a degree of internal stability through infrastructure and economic development plans, as well as regional diplomatic initiatives, while also seeking more balanced relations abroad. In this context, a potential power vacuum that could emerge in a scenario where the influence of the United States and Iran in Iraq weakens or is rebalanced presents both significant risks and strategic opportunities for Türkiye. On the one hand, security risks such as the strengthening of Iran-backed militia networks and the spillover of regional conflicts into Iraq remain a concern. On the other hand, new avenues may emerge through economic projects, security cooperation, and diplomatic initiatives that could allow Ankara to expand its influence in Iraq.
